Wednesday, May 12, 2004

Calm Down!!!

My reaction to the despair of many Democrats at the inability of Kerry to gain in the polls over the past two months, which have been nothing short of disastrous for Bush's policy goals in Iraq, is an emphatic: Calm Down!!!!

It is more than premature to complain about a campaign so early, in May, that is actually polling quite well: in a dead-heat with the incumbent. In fact, both candidates' approval ratings put Kerry in a better position than Clinton was in 1999 and Reagan in 1979. Campaigns take time to unfold, and to define candidates, and people must not expect instant gratification from the ambiguous world of polling. Such misguided panic on the part of some in the Democratic Party gives potential voters the wrong impression and is counterproductive at best.

For a discussion of current poll numbers, and the historical nuances of presidential polls, check out this piece written by a director of the Pew Research Center (a widely respected non-partisan polling organization)

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