Wednesday, September 08, 2004

Dead Cat Bounce?

In a post yesterday, I preached patience to the Democratic supporters, counseling that the recent wave of polling data did not accurately reflect the mood of the voters. I offered a reminder to the disheartened that Kerry was a strong closer and would make up that ground over the upcoming weeks. Well, it may have happened sooner than even my sanguine eyes could have imagined.

According to the
most recent Gallup polls, John Kerry has extended his lead among swing state voters, while George Bush received an underwhelming minus one point bounce (or dip) from the convention. Heading into the Republican soiree, Kerry led Bush among swingers by a count of 47%-46%. The post-convention poll shows the Kerry lead at 50%-45%. Any more bounces like that, and Bush is liable to break. But is gets better, Kerry continues to lead among independents, 49%-46%, while each Party remains polarized at 90%-7% respectively.

This polling data is reflected in the
Electoral College watch which I cited yesterday. The site has been updated to reflect the latest round of polling data which shows that what was a moderate lead for Bush as of yesterday, 275 Bush to Kerry's 237 with 26 exactly tied, has turned into a similar lead for Kerry with 264 to Bush's 222 with 52 exactly tied.

Nevertheless, I reiterate my caveat that too much is made of poll numbers, since they are inevitably inaccurate, and that in some cases they are used to deflate the enthusiasm of potential voters. It is with this in mind that I say that these polls do not indicate that Kerry will win come November, but they sure do take the steam out of the countervailing claim that last week's polls spelled doom for Kerry/Edwards. As a famous catcher for my home town team once said, "It ain't over till it's over."

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